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Goldman Sachs Could Earn an Extra $3Bn From Major Trading Rebound

January 10, 2017

There's a major rebound underway in the fixed income, currencies, and commodities - or FICC - trading business on Wall Street, and Goldman Sachs stands to win big from it – more so than any other bank.

 

UBS analyst Brennan Hawken forecasts a $15 billion recovery in FICC revenues for the bulge bracket firms, and Goldman is the best-positioned FICC franchise because it stands to capture 20% of the revenue expansion. Why so? Because he expects the shift towards macro businesses will benefit firms like Goldman “that have not pulled back dramatically from the businesses previously under pressure."

 

While some firms have made heavy cuts in their FICC businesses – e.g., Morgan Stanley cut 25% of its headcount at the end of 2015. Goldman has mostly stuck by the business, though co-COO Harvey Schwartz, who previously was CFO, acknowledged that the firm has cut more than 10% of its FICC headcount since 2013. That said, Schwartz remarked in 2015: "We are very committed to it because when we're with clients whether they are transacting on a particular day or not, it doesn't matter to us - we know this service is important to them."