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Goldman Sachs Economists Starting to Worry About President Trump

February 6, 2017

Just a few weeks ago, Wall Street analysts were busy boosting their economic forecasts on the expectation that President Trump would implement sweeping corporate-tax reform, a rollback of regulations, and new fiscal stimulus. But it’s 2 weeks into his term, and the president has pursued a different agenda.

 

"Following the election, the positive shift in sentiment among investors, business, and consumers suggested that the probability of tax cuts and easier regulation was seen to be higher than the probability of meaningful restrictions to trade and immigration," Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists led by Alec Phillips wrote in note published late last week. "One month into the year, the balance of risks is somewhat less positive in our view."

 

Goldman's Phillips cites 3 key reasons for the more cautious tone:

 

1. Obamacare struggle is a sign of things to come.    Republicans' uphill efforts when it comes to replacing the Affordable Care Act may prove to be the norm rather than an exception. For investors expecting that the Republican-controlled Congress would be able to push through a sweeping agenda including tax reform and fiscal stimulus, this may prove disappointing.

 

2. Polarization of political parties is getting worse.    Trump's executive order barring nationals from 7 predominately Muslim countries sparked a backlash in Washington and has done little to heal the rift between Republicans and Democrats, making the prospect of cross-party cooperation even more remote.

 

3. There's a real possibility of market disruption.    Trump's focus on immigration and trade may prove more than disappointing for Wall Street and Corporate America; it could prove downright disruptive.