Thanks to new financial regulations around the world since the 2008 financial crisis, the global economy appears to be sufficiently buffered from widespread markets meltdown. However, risk managers are now being forewarned of an increased chance of international conflict, according to the latest analysis by the Cambridge Center for Global Risk of the University of Cambridge Judge B-School.

“The reduction in the likely severity of future financial crises, as a result of improved banking liquidity, means that interstate [between countries] conflict risk is now almost as severe a threat to the global economy as a market crash from another financial crisis.”

At the same time, the risk of major economic shocks from cyberattacks is 20% above the baseline, as the near-term chance of disruption to business is high and it will take some time until international cooperation and law enforcement can more effectively tackle hackers.

Geographically, the risks appear to be greatest in the emerging economies of the Pacific Rim, Middle East, Latin America and Southeast Asia. Some of the cities most likely at risk from shocks in 2017 are Osaka, Moscow, Khartoum, Baghdad, Karachi and Tel Aviv. Indeed, the study found that emerging economies will bear the brunt of more risk-related economic loss in coming years because of their higher rate of growth and their relatively unstable risk environment.

Lastly, another trend identified by the analysis is the “growing prominence” of man-made risks - as opposed to natural disasters - and a “heavy contribution” from new risks such as cyber attacks and infrastructure vulnerabilities. Dealing with the new wave of risks will require international cooperation, said the study, as they “transcend the ability of any individual country to deal with the risk or contain it on their own.”