In past years, the size and structure of the payouts would have been subject to considerable speculation at this time of year.  But with bonuses more diminutive than they used to be, especially in Europe, the old bonus hubbub is now just a background murmur.

This makes predicting the size of payouts more difficult than ever. Not every bank provides figures allowing pay per head calculations and those that do classify investment bank employees differently, making comparisons difficult or meaningless. At the same time, most firms are busy shifting roles to “low cost centres” with the result that average pay per head is falling - although pay for those lucky enough to keep their jobs in London or New York is likely to remain the same.

As far as performance goes, it's pleasant to keep in mind that the second half of the year has been strong - while the first half of the year was anything but. Banks’ bonus calculations will therefore be clouded by the climate between January and June.

efinancialcareers takes a stab at predicting the 2016 bonus situation at the following banks: [clink link for details]:

• Barclays
• Bank of America
• Citigroup
• Credit Suisse
• Deutsche Bank
• Goldman Sachs
• JPMorgan
• Morgan Stanley
• UBS